Quantum Is Strategic To Companies And Countries, Upside And Downside Alike

The prospects and impact of quantum technologies have been much discussed in recent years. Whatever the outcome of this discussion, it should be on a strategic, not tactical, level.

Predictions suggest quantum computing will have a profound impact on financial services, logistics, transportation, aerospace and automotive, materials science, energy, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, and cybersecurity. All of these areas are strategic on macroeconomic and national security scales.

Breakthroughs on these fronts are even more important at a time in which nations reduce cooperation with each other and are engaged in fierce competition and sometimes hostile conflicts. Significant investments by countries around the world (notably China) have led business and technical leaders such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt to sound the alarm.

A paper from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, chaired by Schmidt, emphasizes how profoundly AI and technologies such as quantum computing will impact our economy, national security and welfare. The paper, which mentions quantum nearly 150 times, urges the U.S. to “develop a single, authoritative list of the technologies that will underpin national competitiveness in the 21st century” and “take bold action to catalyze U.S. leadership” in these areas. The paper also indicates that “investing in specific platforms that will enable transformational breakthroughs and building vibrant domestic manufacturing ecosystems in each” will be critical going forward.

Be Aware That The Race For Quantum Advantage Has Already Begun

As a December 2021 McKinsey Digital report notes, “because quantum computing is still a young field, the majority of funding for basic research in the area still comes from public sources.” But leading companies such as BMW, ExxonMobil, FedEx, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Merck, Roche, Volkswagen and Wells Fargo are not relying exclusively on governments and are making their own significant investments in quantum computing.

Countries don’t build their own cars or PCs, but many countries are trying to build their own quantum computers. These countries understand the transformational potential of quantum computing and wish to limit their dependence on other countries. McKinsey says regarding quantum investment:

• China is the clear leader, with $15 billion announced planned governmental funding.
• The European Union plans to spend $7.2 billion in public funding on quantum.
• Germany, France, the Netherlands and Sweden are among the top EU investors.
• The United States has announced $1.3 billion in planned quantum government funding, followed by the U.K. at $1.2 billion and India and Japan at $1 billion each.
• Russia is also on the list, with plans to spend the equivalent of $700 million in government funds on quantum computing technology.
• Even smaller economies like Canada, Singapore and Israel are engaged in national programs.

Beyond sheer budgeting, all major governments make periodic announcements on the strategic administration of quantum technologies, the latest came this early May from the White House.

What It Means For Companies To Engage In Emerging Strategic Technologies

Whether you are in the public or private sector, getting started in quantum computing will require you to make investments of time and money in software and talent. In return, your quantum efforts will enable you to prepare and adapt the use of quantum technology.

If quantum is the game changer that many leading academic institutions, companies, countries and technologists believe it to be, you will be better positioned to compete. Catching up on game-changing technologies is much more expensive and painful than joining early and keeping pace at the front—as many companies have experienced in the web, AI, mobile and cloud transformations. Preparing the company’s knowledge and software infrastructure is the prudent thing to do.

The required investment is relatively small. It’s primarily an operating expense—people and cloud access. Most companies don’t need to buy a quantum computer to support their quantum efforts. Mature cloud service providers such as Amazon Braket, Azure Quantum and IBM Quantum offer on-demand quantum computing services, with others such as the newly formed Sandbox AQ likely to join.

Benefiting Early, From The Upside And The Downside

Deciding whether to invest in quantum computing is not a tactical technical decision, such as moving from one type of database to another or adopting Python instead of C++. Quantum computing is a strategic imperative in the sense that a decision upon it should be taken by higher management with a broad vision of technological positioning of the company.

As former U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Rogers, who was the 17th director of the National Security Agency and the second commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, recently noted, quantum computing could be both “very destabilizing” and “have the potential to really benefit societies around the world.” A technology of such impact should be examined and decided at the chief strategy officer level of the company.

As with all high-impact decisions, there is always a downside of not taking the most optimized path at the exact right time. Nevertheless, centuries of basic and applied research have taught us that investment in technology always reaps its benefits, whether it’s intended or unexpected. Billion-dollar investments in grand science and technology—space exploration, particle accelerators, molecular biology, to name a few—resulted in technological breakthroughs far wider than their original scope. Just as particle accelerators led to more powerful magnets used in medical devices, investment in quantum algorithms already is starting to lead to more powerful classical algorithms and better refined use cases in many companies. A substantially new way of thinking results in substantially new insights into the business challenges and their technical solutions.

And clearly, on the upside, the power that quantum computing delivers will enable prepared public and private entities to provide rapid solutions to previously unsolvable problems. Any number-crunching solution the company currently deploys to address its challenges will be put on steroids when quantum software and hardware reach the maturity level we expect them to reach.

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This article originally appeared on Forbes here.

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